# Overcoming Bias by Robin Hanson — complete archive in chronological order

Source: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
Essays: 100 · Span: 2006-11-20 to 2007-01-11 · Total reading time: ~4 hours

Track your progress through this archive with a free account: https://www.evergreenessays.com/start/overcoming-bias

## Essays

1. [How To Join](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/introductionhtml) (2006-11-20) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson outlines the content of his future blog. He suggests readers will learn how to overcome biases and become more critical thinkers. He also encourages them to join the discussion on common patterns of bias and self-deception, statistical analysis tools, and social institutions that encourage bias correction.
2. [Hide Sociobiology Like Sex?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/does_sociobiolohtml) (2006-11-20) — 3 min
  Robin Hanson explores the bias in our education system towards promoting undiscriminating altruism and discouraging the teaching of self-interest. Drawing on the insights of renowned primatologist Sarah Hrdy and gene theorist David Haig, the author questions whether we should approach the teaching of sociobiology (or evolutionary psychology) with the same caution as we do sex education. As the author challenges the prevailing notion of humans as innately self-interested beings, they delve into the price individuals and society may pay for overcoming bias.
3. [Quiz: Fox or Hedgehog?
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/quiz_fox_or_hedhtml) (2006-11-20) — 5 min
  Robin Hanson explores the fascinating correlation between cognitive styles and prediction accuracy. Drawing from Philip E. Tetlock's book "Expert Political Judgement," Hanson delves into the distinction between two cognitive styles: the hedgehog and the fox. Which one is more successful in predicting outcomes? Take the quiz provided by Tetlock to determine whether you are a fox or a hedgehog, and stay tuned for Hanson's upcoming analysis of Tetlock's findings. This article promises to shed light on the nature of bias and error in our own predictions and analyses.
4. [The Movie “Click”
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/click_christmashtml) (2006-11-21) — 6 min
  Robin Hanson explores the concept of bias and the effectiveness of social disapproval in discouraging it. Drawing inspiration from the movie "Click" and other works, they question the reality of bias and delve into the conflict between work and personal life. They also analyze the accuracy of expert predictions and discuss the cognitive styles of hedgehogs and foxes. With a focus on improving prediction accuracy, this article promises to challenge your beliefs and shed light on the complexities of bias.
5. [The Wisdom of Bromides](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_wisdom_of_bhtml) (2006-11-21) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the function of bromides, those catchy little sayings that offer nuggets of wisdom like "Look before you leap!" and "He who hesitates is lost!" In this thought-provoking essay, Hanson explores how these bromides work to draw attention to common failure modes and biases, such as being too rash or too indecisive. By dissecting the function of these sayings, Hanson reveals insights into biases that individuals may possess, even if these biases average out on a population level. Prepare to challenge your thinking and gain a deeper understanding of how bromides can shape our behavior.
6. [Beware Heritable Beliefs](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware_heritablhtml) (2006-11-22) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the fascinating and controversial topic of heritable beliefs in his latest thought-provoking essay. Drawing from a study on attitudes of twins, Hanson explores the genetic influences on our beliefs regarding life, intellect, equality, and punishment. He challenges readers to consider whether our beliefs on certain topics are actually rooted in truth or simply a product of our genes. Are there plausible explanations for why genetically-influenced beliefs may be more accurate? Or should we acknowledge the random nature of our beliefs and question their validity? Dive into this intriguing exploration of belief origins and biases.
7. [The Martial Art of Rationality](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/teaxCFgtmCQ3E9fy8/the-martial-art-of-rationality) (2006-11-22) — 4 min
  Robin Hanson proposes that rationality is the martial art of the mind, a skill that can be learned and honed just like any physical discipline. In this thought-provoking essay, Hanson delves into the complexities of rational thought and the challenges of training our brains to think critically and avoid common cognitive biases. Drawing on insights from psychology and probability theory, he explores the potential for synthesizing a shared vocabulary and systematizing techniques of personal rationality. Discover how the pursuit of rationality can help us navigate the complexities of our own minds and make more informed decisions.
8. [A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/first_known_bushtml) (2006-11-23) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson takes us back to the beginning of speculative markets created by non-traders in this fascinating essay. Exploring a 1990 prediction market created at Xanadu, Inc., Hanson shares how these markets were used to gain information by believing in market prices. Discover the story of the first ever market where employees and consultants bet on scientific claims and later shifted to betting on a product delivery before a political event. With insights into the dynamics of these markets and their potential to reduce bias, this essay sheds light on the origins of a revolutionary approach to information gathering.
9. [Why Are Academics Liberal?
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_cause_of_ishtml) (2006-11-24) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the fascinating topic of why academics, especially those in humanities and social sciences, tend to be more liberal and Democratic compared to the general public. Exploring possible explanations such as intelligence, social pressure, and discrimination, Hanson raises thought-provoking questions about the impact this disparity may have on the beliefs expressed in academic articles. As an economist in a department with a different ratio, Hanson brings a unique perspective to the discussion. Join the exploration of this intriguing issue and discover potential ways to distinguish between theories.
10. [Moral Overconfidence
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/moral_hypocricyhtml) (2006-11-25) — 2 min
  Robin Hanson challenges the notion of moral superiority in his insightful essay. He draws attention to staggering statistics that reveal high levels of cheating, lying, and stealing among high school students, while simultaneously expressing satisfaction with their ethics. Hanson argues that moral overconfidence is a more plausible explanation for these results. He also explores a thought-provoking set of experiments that highlight how people tend to act less fairly when given even minor justifications for their unfair behavior. Prepare to question your own moral standing as you dive into this eye-opening piece.
11. [What exactly is bias?
](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/what_exactly_ishtml) (2006-11-25) — 3 min
  Join Robin Hanson as he delves into the concept of bias, exploring what it truly means and how it differs from other forms of epistemological error. Hanson questions whether bias is avoidable or if it is merely a consequence of lacking certain information, while also considering whether systematic errors can still be classified as bias even if they are unavoidable. Through this thought-provoking essay, Hanson suggests an alternative interpretation of bias, proposing that it is a non-rational factor that consistently sways our beliefs in a particular direction. Discover the intricacies and complexities of bias in this captivating piece.
12. [Foxes vs Hedgehogs: Predictive Success](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/foxes_vs_hedghohtml) (2006-11-26) — 6 min
  Robin Hanson explores the cognitive styles of "Foxes" and "Hedgehogs" in the context of predictive accuracy. He delves into a study that found Foxes, with their adaptable and flexible thinking, outperformed Hedgehogs, who focus on a single theoretical framework. Hanson also highlights the surprising findings that computer models outperformed human experts in predictions. This thought-provoking essay raises questions about the use of human experts in various fields and the potential for improving accuracy through alternative methods. Click to read more about the fascinating insights from this exploration of predictive success.
13. [To the barricades! Against … what exactly?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/to_the_barricadhtml) (2006-11-26) — 4 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the complexities of our human tendency to distort beliefs and the hindrances it poses in problem-solving. With a call for precision and clarity, Hanson invites readers to join a community dedicated to reducing belief errors in a world filled with biases. Exploring the cognitive functions behind these distortions, the article highlights the challenge of recognizing them in ourselves and the potential benefits of overcoming bias. Hanson proposes a definition of bias as "cheaply avoidable error" and encourages readers to engage in the discussion to better understand and address this issue.
14. [Asymmetric Paternalism](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/asymmetric_patehtml) (2006-11-26) — 5 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the intriguing concept of "Asymmetric Paternalism," examining how paternalistic laws should be evaluated. Hanson explores the benefits of cognitive biases and the role they play in a government's decision-making process, while also delving into the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the implementation of such laws. He raises thought-provoking questions about the effectiveness of private incentives and offers an alternative perspective on approaching paternalism. Dive into this fascinating essay that peels back the layers of regulation and behavioral economics, challenging conventional wisdom and sparking critical thinking.
15. [Why Truth?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why_truth_andhtml) (2006-11-26) — 4 min
16. [What's a Bias?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/whats_a_bias_aghtml) (2006-11-26) — 3 min
17. [Beware Amateur Science History](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware_amateur_html) (2006-11-27) — 2 min
  In this eye-opening essay, Robin Hanson challenges the notion that the history of science, as commonly understood by scientists, accurately reflects the true sequence of discoveries. Drawing on personal experiences and examples from renowned scientists, Hanson exposes the misleading narratives and persistent myths that shape our understanding of scientific progress. He raises thought-provoking questions about the significance of accuracy in science history and highlights how the desire for compelling narratives often eclipses the pursuit of truth. Prepare to question the stories you've been told about the great scientific breakthroughs and the individuals credited with them.
18. [Surprisingly Friendly Suburbs](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/surprisingly_frhtml) (2006-11-27) — 1 min
  In a thought-provoking essay, Robin Hanson challenges the popular notion that people in cities have better relationships with their neighbors compared to suburbanites. Drawing on a study by Jan K. Brueckner, Hanson reveals that suburbs surprisingly foster more friendships and strong neighborly connections. This unexpected finding challenges the prevailing argument in favor of greater urban density and against suburban sprawl. Hanson's piece serves as a powerful reminder to question widely-held assumptions and remain open to the possibility of reversing our opinions based on new evidence.
19. [Are The Big Four Econ Errors Biases?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_big_four_echtml) (2006-11-28) — 3 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the biases and errors that plague the public's understanding of economics in this thought-provoking essay. Exploring the four major biases identified by economist Bryan Caplan, Hanson questions whether these errors can be attributed solely to ignorance or if there are deeper psychological reasons at play. With insightful observations on the way economics is perceived compared to other sciences, Hanson challenges readers to consider why certain beliefs about the social world persist, even in the face of contradictory evidence. An engaging and eye-opening read for anyone interested in the intersection of economics and public perception.
20. [Pascalian Meditations](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/pascalian_medithtml) (2006-11-28) — 3 min
  Robin Hanson delves into the parallels between minimizing bias and consequentialist moral theories, exploring the potential correlation between enthusiasm for both. He addresses objections that question the feasibility and effectiveness of pursuing truth-seeking, drawing inspiration from Tyler Cowen's thoughts on the matter. Hanson examines the Augustinian Argument, suggesting that living with our biased cognitive systems may not be the only option, and raises intriguing questions about the self-defeating nature of excessive efforts to prevent bias. In this thought-provoking essay, Hanson challenges our assumptions and encourages us to critically evaluate our pursuit of truth.
21. [In[]cautious defense of bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/incautious_defehtml) (2006-11-28) — 4 min
22. [Beware of Disagreeing with Lewis](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/beware_of_disaghtml) (2006-11-29) — 4 min
23. [Thank you ma’am, may I have another?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/thank_you_maam_html) (2006-11-30) — 2 min
24. [Macro Shares: Prediction Markets via Stock Exchanges?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/macro_shares_prhtml) (2006-11-30) — 1 min
25. [The Onion on Bias: “Duh”](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_onion_on_bihtml) (2006-12-01) — 1 min
26. [The Proper Use of Humility](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GrDqnMjhqoxiqpQPw/the-proper-use-of-humility) (2006-12-01) — 7 min
27. [Biases of Science Fiction](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/biases_of_scienhtml) (2006-12-02) — 1 min
28. [Bias, Well-Being, and the Placebo Effect](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/bias_wellbeing_html) (2006-12-02) — 3 min
29. [Does Profit Rate Insight Best?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/does_profit_rathtml) (2006-12-03) — 2 min
30. [Future Selves](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/future_selveshtml) (2006-12-03) — 2 min
31. [Seen vs. Unseen Biases](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/seen_vs_unseen_html) (2006-12-04) — 2 min
32. [Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/bosses_prefer_ohtml) (2006-12-05) — 2 min
33. [Math Zero vs. Political Zero](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/math_zero_vs_pohtml) (2006-12-05) — 3 min
34. [Reasonable Disagreement](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/reasonable_disahtml) (2006-12-06) — 2 min
35. [The Wisdom of Crowds](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_wisdom_of_chtml) (2006-12-06) — 5 min
36. [Alas Amateur Futurism](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/alas_amateur_fuhtml) (2006-12-07) — 2 min
37. [Leamer’s 1986 Idea Futures Proposal](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/leamers_1986_idhtml) (2006-12-08) — 2 min
38. [Time on Risk](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/time_on_riskhtml) (2006-12-09) — 3 min
39. [Agreeing to Agree](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/agreeing_to_agrhtml) (2006-12-10) — 4 min
40. [The Modesty Argument](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NKECtGX4RZPd7SqYp/the-modesty-argument) (2006-12-10) — 14 min
41. [Law as No-Bias Theatre](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/law_as_nobias_thtml) (2006-12-11) — 2 min
42. [We Are Smarter Than Me](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/we_are_smarter_html) (2006-12-11) — 2 min
43. [Should Prediction Markets be Charities?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/should_predictihtml) (2006-12-11) — 2 min
44. [Do Helping Professions Help More?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/do_helping_profhtml) (2006-12-12) — 2 min
45. [Ignorance of Frankenfoods](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ignorance_of_frhtml) (2006-12-13) — 2 min
46. [The 80% Forecasting Solution](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_80_forecasthtml) (2006-12-13) — 2 min
47. [Fillers Neglect Framers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fillers_neglecthtml) (2006-12-14) — 2 min
48. [Malatesta Estimator](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/malatesta_estimhtml) (2006-12-14) — 2 min
49. [Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/meme_lineages_ahtml) (2006-12-15) — 2 min
50. [Philosophers on Moral Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/philosophers_onhtml) (2006-12-16) — 3 min
51. [Does the Modesty Argument Apply to Moral Claims?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/does_the_modesthtml) (2006-12-16) — 4 min
52. [Bias in Christmas Shopping](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/bias_in_christmhtml) (2006-12-17) — 2 min
53. [Finding the Truth in Controversies](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/finding_the_truhtml) (2006-12-18) — 3 min
54. [When Error is High, Simplify](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/when_error_is_hhtml) (2006-12-18) — 3 min
55. [Advertisers vs. Teachers](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/suppose_that_cohtml) (2006-12-19) — 2 min
56. [To Win Press, Feign Surprise](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/to_win_press_fehtml) (2006-12-19) — 3 min
57. [Modesty in a Disagreeable World](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/modesty_in_a_dihtml) (2006-12-19) — 6 min
58. [Why Not Impossible Worlds?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why_not_impossihtml) (2006-12-20) — 2 min
59. [A Decent Respect](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/a_decent_respechtml) (2006-12-21) — 2 min
60. [You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/you_are_never_ehtml) (2006-12-21) — 3 min
61. ["I don't know."](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pm83rA8MTYYeR4Ci4/i-don-t-know) (2006-12-21) — 9 min
62. [Contributors: Be Half Accessible](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/contributors_behtml) (2006-12-21) — 1 min
63. [You Will Age And Die](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/you_will_age_anhtml) (2006-12-22) — 1 min
64. [When Truth is a Trap](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/when_truth_is_ahtml) (2006-12-22) — 2 min
65. [A Christmas Gift for Rationalists](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/a_christmas_gifhtml) (2006-12-22) — 2 min
66. [A Fable of Science and Politics](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6hfGNLf4Hg5DXqJCF/a-fable-of-science-and-politics) (2006-12-22) — 7 min
67. [The Future of Oil Prices](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_future_of_ohtml) (2006-12-23) — 1 min
68. [Why Common Priors](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why_common_priohtml) (2006-12-24) — 3 min
69. [Advertisers vs. Teachers II](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/advertisers_vs_html) (2006-12-24) — 2 min
70. [Gifts Hurt](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/gifts_hurthtml) (2006-12-25) — 2 min
71. [Ads that Hurt](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ads_that_hurthtml) (2006-12-25) — 2 min
72. [Gnosis](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/gnosishtml) (2006-12-25) — 2 min
73. [Academic Overconfidence](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/academic_overcohtml) (2006-12-26) — 2 min
74. [Resolving Your Hypocrisy](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/resolving_your_html) (2006-12-27) — 3 min
75. [The Future of Oil Prices 2: Option Probabilities](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_future_of_o_1html) (2006-12-27) — 6 min
76. [See, But Don’t Believe](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/see_but_dont_behtml) (2006-12-28) — 2 min
77. [Benefit of Doubt = Bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/benefit_of_doubhtml) (2006-12-29) — 3 min
78. [Vulcan Logic](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/vulcan_logichtml) (2006-12-31) — 2 min
79. [Normative Bayesianism and Disagreement](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/normative_bayeshtml) (2006-12-31) — 3 min
80. [A Honest Doctor, Sort Of](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/a_honest_doctorhtml) (2007-01-01) — 2 min
81. [The Coin Guessing Game](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_coin_guessihtml) (2007-01-02) — 6 min
82. [Why Don’t the Young Learn from the Old?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why_dont_the_yohtml) (2007-01-02) — 2 min
83. [Discussions of Bias in answers to the Edge 2007 Question](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/media_biases_ushtml) (2007-01-02) — 2 min
84. [What if Everybody Overcame Bias?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/what_if_everybohtml) (2007-01-03) — 2 min
85. [Two Cheers for Ignoring Plain Facts](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/two_cheers_for_html) (2007-01-03) — 2 min
86. [All Bias is Signed](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/all_bias_is_sightml) (2007-01-03) — 3 min
87. [The cognitive architecture of bias](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the_cognitive_ahtml) (2007-01-03) — 5 min
88. [Fair betting odds and Prediction Market prices](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/fair_betting_odhtml) (2007-01-03) — 3 min
89. [Convenient Bias Theories](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/convenient_biashtml) (2007-01-04) — 2 min
90. [Do Biases Favor Hawks?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/do_biases_favorhtml) (2007-01-05) — 2 min
91. [We Can’t Foresee To Disagree](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/we_cant_foreseehtml) (2007-01-06) — 2 min
92. [Conspicuous Consumption of Info](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/conspicuous_conhtml) (2007-01-08) — 2 min
93. [Avoiding Truth](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/avoiding_truthhtml) (2007-01-08) — 1 min
94. [How Are We Doing?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/how_are_we_doinhtml) (2007-01-08) — 1 min
95. [Hobgoblins of Voter Minds](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/hobgoblins_of_vhtml) (2007-01-09) — 2 min
96. [Disagreement at Thoughts, Arguments and Rants](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/disagreement_athtml) (2007-01-10) — 1 min
97. [Why Allow Referee Bias?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/why_is_referee_html) (2007-01-10) — 1 min
98. [A game for self-Calibration?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/a_game_for_selfhtml) (2007-01-10) — 3 min
99. [Bias not a bug but a feature?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/bias_not_a_bug_html) (2007-01-11) — 2 min
100. [Epidemics are 98% Below Average](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/epidemics_are_9html) (2007-01-11) — 2 min